Darjeelink - Alexis Perrier

McKinsey on Prediction Markets

Thanks to John T. Maloney for pointing this out on teh prediction market google group. McKinsey in its latest quaterly emphasizes the importance of prediction market as one of the business technology in the rise.

Eight business technology trends to watch

by James M. Manyika, Roger P. Roberts, and Kara L. Sprague

7. Putting more science into management

Just as the Internet and productivity tools extend the reach of and provide leverage to desk-based workers, technology is helping managers exploit ever-greater amounts of data to make smarter decisions and develop the insights that create competitive advantages and new business models. From “ideagoras” (eBay-like marketplaces for ideas) to predictive markets to performance-management approaches, ubiquitous standards-based technologies promote aggregation, processing, and decision making based on the use of growing pools of rich data.

Leading players are exploiting this information explosion with a diverse set of management techniques. Google fosters innovation through an internal market: employees submit ideas, and other employees decide if an idea is worth pursuing or if they would be willing to work on it full-time. Intel integrates a “prediction market” with regular short-term forecasting processes to build more accurate and less volatile estimates of demand. [...]

The audio version of the article is also available .